The Race for the U.S. Presidency
Over the last two weeks, Dr. Brad Nelson and his colleague Dr. Yohanes Sulaiman have discussed the state of race for the American presidency. The below conversation has been edited slightly for length and clarity considerations.
Brad Nelson: What do you make Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race?
Yohanes Sulaiman: He got knifed by jittery Democratic elites and media. Yes, his debate performance was disastrous, but if the Democratic elite was all solidly behind him, then it would be just another day in campaign politics. But the Democrats got spooked.
As we know, Biden already gave his support to Kamala, but based on her own disastrous performance running for the Democratic nomination four years ago, I don't think she is up to the game. But we will see. Now she has the benefit of goodwill from everyone, especially the media, because she is neither Biden nor Trump. But she needs to watch her game carefully.
BN: I have two thoughts. First, Biden's poor debate, the reaction to it, the in-fighting within the Democratic Party, and his decision to drop out of the election—all of this chaos is attributable to Biden's close staff/advisors. For three years, they hid him from the public. He didn't give many interviews or press conferences. And when he did do a press conference, he rarely fielded questions from reporters. Now, was this because Biden was in decline, or because he's gaffe-prone? I wasn't sure. In retrospect, it's now obvious. Biden's close inner circle thought that he was having enough "good days" that they could get him through November 5th without incident, and then deal with whatever happens after that. Clearly, this was a high-risk gamble, not a sure-bet, and they lost. Biden had a very, very "bad day" on June 27th and the rest is history.
Second, much of the discussion about Biden's withdrawal has focused on the presidential horse race impact—How does Kamala Harris match up against Trump? And it's understandable, given the importance of the position. But that's not the only thing at stake. The future of the House and Senate is also up-for-grabs this November. And those races are almost as important as POTUS. If Biden stayed in until election day and his polls continued to sag, he could've brought down Democratic candidates up and down the ballot, paving the way for the GOP to take the House, Senate and White House—thereby leaving Trump with an unobstructed path to remaking the federal government and ramrodding his preferred policies through the political system. Perhaps Harris won't win against Trump; maybe in the end she fares only a little better than Biden would've against Trump. Even so, she has a good chance at staunching the down-ballot tide away from the Democrats to the GOP. And if the Democrats can keep at least once chamber of the legislature away from Trump, the Democrats could possess enough power to gum up the GOP's grand plans.
YS: For the Democrats, Kamala's nomination is practically a godsend as it literally wiped out the assassination attempt on Trump from the public's mind, and at the same time destroyed the contrast between strong Trump and feeble Biden. Now that the conversation has shifted, the Republicans have to define Harris, it can no longer capitalize on Trump's death defying act and its aftermath.
The next question is: Who will be Kamala's VP (Vice President)? While the academic literature notes that VP selection is unlikely to significantly impact a candidate’s chances of election success, it can on occasion wreck a campaign (see Palin for instance). Harris needs to find someone that can be seen as a moderate contrast, not unlike the inexperienced Obama and the "sage" Biden back in 2008. Plus, with Trump already picking the youthful and vigorous J.D. Vance, she needs someone to be able to go toe to toe him.
BN: I expect Harris to choose a VP who will "balance the ticket" and offer some hope of boosting her campaign. In other words, she's likely to pick a candidate who's a moderate, a man, and someone from a battleground state. Governor Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania is probably the favorite, though I've heard there were as many as a dozen candidates on her list.
Harris has real momentum right now. Even more than I thought she'd have. After all, Trump was almost killed, the GOP had its convention, and Vance was recently unveiled as Trump's running mate--events that should've put significant wind in the sails of Trump and his party. But any boost from those things has proved ephemeral. The rise of Harris has completely swamped Trump, removing him from the political spotlight and news headlines, shifting the race (some polls have Harris now ahead of Trump), and clearly has him on the defensive. To be sure, Harris has gender, race, age, and, put simply, political "newness" all on her side—all of which compensate for Biden's weaknesses and now expose Trump to new political vulnerabilities. I didn't foresee Harris becoming a social media darling, and some of that is luck and some of that is due to a big assist from the English pop singer Charli XCX, but that’s where we are right now.
Harris is in a good spot. And Democrats are justifiably ecstatic, given where Biden and the party was just a few weeks ago. The race is now a dead heat—in terms of national polling and polling in almost all of the battleground states. But as James Carville said recently, "giddy elation" won't win the election. The honeymoon period will end sometime soon, and Harris and her boosters will have to be prepared to grind it out every day until November 5th.
YS: Yes, I agree. Giddiness does not win the election. There is still some time to unearth more dirt, commit blunders, and have supporters act like idiots. And as far as I know, so far Harris hasn't really told us what she would do as the next president. Yes she is a VP, but that does not mean that she will continue all Biden's policies, especially in regards to Israel. Once she starts elaborating on her policies and people start scrutinizing them, then the sheen will likely wear off.
BN: Lastly, I think we have to talk about Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, Trump's pick as VP. (Readers who've kept up with our work over the years might remember that J.D. actually wrote a few pieces for the CWCP blog more than a decade ago, back when he was still a student at Yale. Plus, I was a professor of his in 2008 at Ohio State. I mention these bits of info just to be forthright that we've had a relationship with J.D.) What do you make of Trump's decision to pick Vance? Do you see Vance as helping the GOP ticket? And how does Vance impact the Democratic and Harris's VP choice, in particular?
YS: I am not sure what brought Trump to pick Vance. Apparently, he has some baggage, given his past comments on women, so much that this actually has blunted Trump's momentum. I understand that his "Hillbilly Elegy" background is a plus, as it shows that Trump is solicitous to blue collar workers and their concerns, but his performance since his nomination has been uneven. Of course, in a month, this hiccup could be forgotten. The Senator from Arizona (Mark Kelly) and Governor of Minnesota (Tim Walz) look to be in the lead as Harris's VP. They could provide a counterbalance to Vance's narrative, and being familiar with the flyover areas, they could be used to expand Harris' outreach from the coasts. Whether they will be successful is an open question.
BN: Trump wants to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, knowing if he can snag at least two of those states, he'll win the election. And he thought that J.D., with his hardscrabble Midwestern working class roots and his professed political goals of improving the plight of workers in Ohio, is well-positioned to aid in this goal. Can J.D. bring these states toward Trump? Probably not, since we know that people vote for president based on who's leading the ticket, not the VP candidate. Nevertheless, J.D. can speak credibly on many of the issues and concerns of voters throughout the Midwest, so the pick certainly makes sense. The fact that J.D. is a known public figure (wrote a best-selling book that was turned into a movie) only helped his VP chances with the fame-obsessed Trump. As I'm sure you're aware, there has been quite a bit of discussion these days in the US on whether Trump has buyer's remorse about J.D. And he might, though I don't think a different VP would have the Trump campaign in a better place right now. The bigger issue is that Harris has captured the momentum and energy in the race, giving Democrats hope when they had none just a few weeks ago.
Harris’s VP decision is coming in the next few hours. The two main contenders are Walz and Shapiro. There’s been speculation that Kelly is out. Regardless, the final 2-3 candidates aren’t a surprise. They are from states that Harris must win and, as you said, have interesting stories that provide a good, compelling contrast to Vance. The race is heating up!