Looking Back at 2021, Looking Ahead at 2022
Below is a conversation I recently had with my colleague Dr. Yohanes Sulaiman. As the title of this post suggests, we take a look back at world politics in 2021 and then look into our crystal balls to forecast what 2022 might look like. The discussion has been lightly edited for length and clarity. I hope you enjoy.
Brad Nelson: Much like 2020, 2021 was defined by the continuing pandemic and the desperate attempts by governments to deal with it. But despite COVID-19, the world didn't stop. And in particular, world politics continued on. And much happened in 2021. What got your attention? What (non-COVID) global events, from 2021 do you see as especially important?
Yohanes Sulaiman: Probably the most important thing that I paid attention to—at least to me—was the Myanmar coup. It basically brought ASEAN's credibility into question. But then again, the organization's credibility has been suspect for many years already.
BN: The biggest global story of 2021, in my view, was the January 6 fiasco at the Capitol. It's a national trauma that will take years to get over. Criminal and political Investigations are ongoing. The political right in the U.S. thinks January 6th wasn't a big deal and that the investigations and related fallout are all a witch hunt. The American left sees it as the right's attempt to overthrow Biden and U.S. democracy. These views have become part of each side's talking points and wars on social media. Because of the heated political climate in the U.S., of which January 6th is a factor, it's routine now to see analysts and scholars warning of civil war in the future. To be sure, some of this is hysterical and performative, but January 6th does reflect real and significant and deep domestic political and social problems in the U.S.
Just as problematic are the international knock-on effects from January 6th. The chaos and violence at the Capitol has undermined America’s global image and credibility. It has made Biden's tenure even tougher than it already was going to be—on both domestic and foreign affairs. It has undermined his pledge that "America is back." The extreme polarization and political chaos and violence has made Biden look weak globally, made countries unwilling to deals with/commit to the U.S., and continued the growing trend of countries being unsure about U.S. global interests and commitments.
Stephen Walt has it right. He argues, “Credibility today is undermined as much by domestic polarization and political dysfunction as by its responses to any specific international situation. Why should other states adjust their policies to the United States’ when they suspect the next president might turn on a dime and head in the opposite direction? Why coordinate costly plans with a country that has trouble passing budgets, managing a pandemic, or implementing a much-needed infrastructure plan? Diminishing faith in the United States’ basic ability to get things done effectively inevitably erodes U.S. credibility: Even when the will is there, convincing others you can deliver on your promises matters too.”
YS: Well, I beg to differ. Nobody thinks that Biden is a pushover or somehow the U.S. is a wreck due to the January 6th fiasco. What ticks people off here (SE Asia) is the fact that the U.S. seems to not take this region seriously, unlike China. Indonesia was deeply disappointed in a May 2021 virtual visit with Team Biden.
A communication glitch during a summit? And the fact that Blinken was in Ireland dealing with problems with the Middle East? According to a Foreign Policy report, “A suggestion before the meeting that Blinken’s deputy, Wendy Sherman, might have to fill in for Blinken only made matters worse, according to a diplomatic source familiar with the incident. The same source said Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi was so upset she never turned on her video feed during the meeting. ‘The Indonesians wanted a proper respectful meeting at foreign minister’s leave—but not by his deputy,’ the diplomatic source said.”
So, no, probably the only country that cares about January 6th is the United States. Some countries probably saw this as something to prod and pressure the U.S. (see China and Russia), but the rest of the world, including Russia and China, don't think this is something that undermines America’s credibility.
BN: On this, we'll have to agree to disagree. I do think countries see Biden as weak, in part because of January 6th. There are large segments of the American population that don't accept Biden as president—to the point they are willing to stage a coup. And fearing a blowback (or worse) from their constituents, the GOP is unwilling to work with Biden—heck, many Congresspersons still don't even see him as legitimately elected. His poll numbers are abysmal. There is constant intra-party fighting and drama within the Democratic Party. And Trump is lurking in the background, threatening to run again in '24—and he has a great shot, possibly even better than in '20, to win and retake the White House. Because of all of this, Biden's ability to get things done is incredibly hampered. Foreign nations see all of this. They don't think that Biden can offer them a whole lot other than bromides and empty promises, and whatever he can provide them is likely only temporary, as Trump or a Trump-like figure in '25 will reverse Biden policies they don't like, particularly on climate change, human rights, democracy, and institutionalism, among other issues.
January 6th fully exposed the domestic rot in the U.S. The White House can no longer gloss over or dismiss America's internal problems, pretending that everything is fine. Everything's not fine, and everyone around the world knows that. Many countries see the U.S. as hopelessly divided and distracted, if not damaged and broken, and they realize Team Biden has limited bandwidth to deal with non-domestic issues. COVID only heightens this problem, as it crowds out even more space and time for foreign policy matters. Just look at Biden's agenda. While there's been much talk about Russia and China in 2021, both nations are really secondary priorities for Biden, frankly. His administration is focused on COVID, of course, but also voting rights reform, infrastructure, social spending, repairing Democratic Party rifts, and, yes, January 6th. And once the GOP takes over the House later this year, Republicans may well move to impeach Biden in '23, and that process will occupy the White House's time.
Additionally, January 6th gave the world's authoritarians a big propaganda boost. They can and have pointed out that U.S. democracy is patently violent and unstable, prone to spawning extremists, thus no better and probably worse than their political systems. As one example, Ryan Haass points out that "Chinese media outlets broadcast images of mayhem inside the American Capitol to a domestic audience to buttress a narrative of America as a country in descent, plagued by deep divisions and a broken political system. Externally, official Chinese media outlets used news of the insurrection to make the case that the greatest threat the United States faces is itself, not China." Other reports suggest that China has emphasized, as a result of January 6th, "the hypocrisy of America's democracy," and China's own domestic stability. Other countries—Russia, Iran, etc.—feel similarly to China and even took pleasure in seeing the U.S. embroiled in domestic chaos, after years of Washington meddling in their politics. Of course, this propaganda is self-serving. But it also reveals a kernel of truth: that they see the U.S. as being in big trouble. Bob Woodward, in his latest book, goes so far as to say that the Chinese actually thought that America was going to collapse as a result of January 6th.
BN: Let's turn to a different question now. Specifically, what do you have your eye on this year? Do you have any expectations/predictions for 2022?
YS: The obvious one: COVID will remain a problem. Also, North Korea will continue provoking its neighbors in the hopes that someone—Russia? China?—will bail Kim out of his various problems. There will be drama in ASEAN due to Myanmar, especially with Cambodia now the chair of ASEAN trying to legitimize Myanmar's military dictatorship. In Europe, you will still have problems with Russia-Ukraine relations. Turkey will implode economically, but Erdogan will most likely stay in power. There will be an agreement with Iran on its nuclear program. Obviously I am missing a lot here, but I don't see there being any big surprises this year.
BN: As you suggest, there seems to be an almost limitless set of possible crises/problems that could happen this year. Of course, I'm following Russia/Ukraine and anything China-related. That said, I really have my eye on the dog that didn't bark in 2021: North Korea. It'd be unlike Kim to go silent for multiple years. Apparently, Kim spent 2021 focusing on COVID and the country's economic struggles. But he's got to be getting restless at this point. Going all this time without hogging the international spotlight and headlines is probably bothering him. And right on cue, North Korea has launched several missiles already this year. I expect more noise from Kim in 2022. Where that goes, I don't know.
I'm interested to see how Biden handles North Korea, if Kim continues to act out. I know Team Biden has been working on an end of war (the Korean War!) declaration, but Pyongyang seems rather indifferent to that, at least for now, claiming it wants the U.S. to change its policies on North Korea before it engages in any end of war talk. Thus far, as we've previously discussed, I give Biden a mediocre grade in executing his crisis foreign policies (Afghanistan withdrawal, Israel-Palestine conflict, for instance). Do we get a sensible, pragmatic approach to an irritable North Korea, or a sloppy, thoughtless, counterproductive one?
YS: It is difficult to see an end game for North Korea that satisfies everyone. For North Korea, the bottom line is it wants to keep its nukes and maintain the survival of the Kim Dynasty. The U.S. will agree on the latter but not the former, and I expect the U.S. would demand North Korea to give up its nukes first before giving it any concessions. That's why Trump’s diplomacy didn’t go anywhere, and I don't see Biden deviating from this policy. The U.S. fears that any concession to North Korea would effectively legitimize the process by which nuclear aspirants actually go nuclear and demand international recognition.
BN: I could see North Korea going sideways this year. Ultimately, Trump didn't give the house away, so to speak, to Kim, though Trump did meet with Kim, giving him face time, which did confer added legitimacy and prestige to Kim and his nation. That kept Kim relatively happy and in line. Biden won't meet with Kim, compliment him, talk about his love for Kim, as Trump did, and Kim could eventually bristle about being downgraded by the White House and lash out—possibly this year, unless COVID takes up too much of his time and attention. On the plus side, though, Biden's team has reached out to North Korea, offering to meet with North Korean diplomats without preconditions. So far, Pyongyang has rejected any meetings until the U.S. alters its policies, which is code for sanctions relief. Nevertheless, it's a small but positive sign, because the U.S. is letting Kim know that it's thinking about him and his country, that they are on America's radar, and that's a much better approach than simply opting to ignore Kim (Obama's approach, often called "strategic patience,” which only riled Kim up and made the situation even more chaotic and unstable).
BN: You mentioned that you don't foresee any surprises this year. Why? Because of COVID?
YS: I don't foresee any surprises this year since the world remains busy dealing with COVID, and also because I don't see anything major on the global agenda this year. Plus, despite China's belligerence, I don't think it is prepared or willing to take risks to invade Taiwan or directly confront the U.S.
BN: One "major" issue on the world's agenda this year is the Iran nuclear deal. You've already mentioned that you expect Iran, the U.S., and the rest of the P5+1 powers to get back to the deal. Why are you confident in this prediction?
YS: I don't see the U.S. under Biden giving that much attention to Iran, and Biden will defer to the EU to find a face-saving formula to restart the deal.
BN: Why the lack of attention? Because of COVID and domestic issues? If so, I agree. I've already said that the U.S. under Biden is distracted, focused on internal affairs. Plus, Biden clearly considers Russia and China as top foreign affairs priorities—despite Biden's campaign pledge to revive the deal. Actually, his team has devoted quite a bit of time already to Iran, and negotiations are ongoing. I do get the sense that the U.S. is getting a bit irritated that the negotiations are going so slowly. Based on the reports I’ve read, it's as if the Biden administration is saying, "we want back in the deal, Iran knows we want back in, and Iran should want back in too. So why is this taking so long?" Because of that, the U.S. and its allies are leaking stories about "time running out" and ramping up coercive measures if Iran continues to be inflexible—which only allows Iran more time to build up its nuclear program.
In the end, it's going to come down to sanctions relief: how much is the U.S. willing to give to Iran? Interestingly, Team Biden has been unwilling to remove all of the Trump-applied sanctions, because some of them are punishment for Iran's non-nuclear behavior and Biden sees them as justified. Meantime, how much sanctions relief is Iran willing to settle for? I don't see extraneous issues like Iran's funding for terrorism and its ballistic missile program being folded into any deal anytime soon—although Trump wanted that, and Biden wants that too. Although Biden promised big changes from Trump on Iran, I see more continuities here between Trump and Biden than differences, a theme we've touched on in the past.
YS: It is the case of damned if you do and damned if you don't. Biden will be attacked by Republicans, especially Trump, if he is seen as conceding too much. At the same time, not conceding anything to Iran would continue the stalemate in talks. Tehran thinks that the U.S. owes Iran compensation due to Trump's breaking the agreement; and plus, Iran is desperate for some sanctions relief. Ultimately, the best course of action is to have the EU take the lead and Biden can pass the buck.